Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Deficits

Federal gov't deficits* in terms of GDP, TMS (True Money Supply, approximated here as "M2 minus" minus "Retail Funds"), M1, M2, and cost of living** (approximated by CPI - all items).

*This includes Obama/Bush's planned $1.6 trillion fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2008-2009.
**right axis

M1 is off the charts, but it should be noted that sweeps and electronic transactions have made it virtually irrelevant and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

Cost of living must also be qualified.  The cost of living is generally falling due to greater technology, capital accumulation, and division of labor.  Thus, the further along the timeline we go, the greater these numbers are amplified in comparison to money supply.  In this respect, this data series cannot be dubbed as "time-neutral".

GDP is not "off the charts" but it is heading that way.  Note that it already exceeds Great Depression deficits.  If GDP shrinks in the next few years, this figure should be even larger.  Only WWII is more extreme.  M2 reinforces this observation, and is possibly the most "time-and-money-supply-neutral" way to look at this data.

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